Projections For The 2018 Congressional Elections

The general election for the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate will be held in all states on November 6, 2018.  There are three possibilities: 1) The Republican party will continue to have a majority in both Houses as they do now;  2) The Democrat Party will gain control of one House of Congress; or 3) The Democrat party will gain control of both the House and the Senate.

Presently, the Republican party has a slim majority in the Senate with 51 seats.  The Democrat party has 47 seats.  Two seats are held by independents who caucus with the Democrat party and usually support the Democrat party in their voting.

This website has selected four U.S. Senate races for analysis.  They are in: 1) Florida, 2) Tennessee, 3) North Dakota, and 4) Missouri.  These states were selected because the elections in these four states could be won by either a Democrat or a Republican with an equal probability.  North Dakota held their primary election on June 12, 2018, so the two candidates in the general election are known.  Heidi Heitkamp is the Democrat nominee and Kevin Cramer is the Republican nominee.  Missouri will hold their primary on August 7, 2018.  Tennessee will hold their primary on August 2,2018.  Florida will hold their primary on August 28, 2018.

Sanityandsense.com presently projects that the Republican Party could win all four general elections with a probability of 2%.  We also project that the Democrat party could win all four general elections with a probability of 2%.  There are three other possibilities: 1) 3-1 for the Democrats, 2) 3-1 for the Republicans, or 3) a 2-2 split. All four of these general elections is considered a “toss-up.” Yet these four races may predict which party will control Congress after the general election.

The Democrat party has 25 seats up for election and the Republican party has 8 seats up for election.  Also, the Democrat party has 10 seats up for election in states that supported Donald Trump in 2016 over Hillary Clinton.  Those elected to Congress on November 6, 2018, will begin their terms on January 3, 2019.

Sanityandsense.com will publish updates on North Dakota presently and then publish updates on the other three states after the primary elections are completed.

R. Van Conoley  ( Editor’s Note: Indiana and Nevada are also considered as possible “toss-up” states. Also, the party in power very often loses seats in Mid-year elections like 2018. This fact favors Democrats. President Trump in 2016 carried ten states where there is a general election in 2018.  This fact favors Republicans. Also, Senator Bernie Sanders is expected to campaign for Democrat candidates and President Trump is expected to campaign for Republican candidates in the general election.  Ms. Clinton’s plans are not yet finalized. )

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