The following projections are made from available data on October 9, 2018, at 6:03 p.m. EST.
The election for the U.S. House of Representatives will take place on November 6, 2018. To obtain a majority, a party must win 218 or more seats.
Our data indicates the following:
1) The Democrat Party has fairly solid control of 200 seats.
2) The Republican Party has fairly solid control of 199 seats.
3) Neither party has control of 36 tossup seats.
In the 36 tossup races, the Republican party has a lead in 25 races. Of the 36 tossup seats, the Democrat party has the lead in 11 races.
Therefore, the projection made on 10/9/2018 is: 1) The Republican party will win 224 seats and the Democrat party will win 211 seats. 2) The Republican party will be the majority party in the U.S. House if the election were held on 10/9/2018, and is the projected winner for the November 6, 2018 election. ******* *******
Employing statistical analysis that involves the margin of error, the present data could allow the Republican party to win 235 seats with the Democrat party winning 200 seats. However, the margin of error works in both directions. The present data could also allow the Democrat party to win 221 seats with the Republican party winning 214 seats.
If the margin of error is confusing to you, read from the top to the ****** . That gives the exact same information without the margin of error factored into the data.
R. Van Conoley ( Editor’s Note: This website was correct in the 2016 Presidential election projection. Projection updated within ten days. )