Presidential 2020 Borderline State Projections

Too much of the news was false or fake news in 2016.  Possibly Hillary Clinton’s greatest mistake in 2016 was to believe her own false propaganda. Presently it is too early to accurately compute presidential projections.  However, it is not too early to compute and analyze the 2020 presidential battleground states.

Battleground states are sometimes called purple states.  A battleground or purple state is a state that could be won by either party and is too close to designate.  The news media uses a “heat map” to show which states have voted their electoral votes for the Republican candidate ( Red ) or the Democratic candidate ( Blue ).  States too close to call are designated in purple.

Just as there is fake and false news from both the left and the right, the internet is overloaded with websites that are nothing more than propaganda tools.  Some of the political websites claim that there are seven borderline states while other websites claim that there are fifteen borderline states.

If you are ready for some straight talk, this website has statistically computed the states that are borderline states for the 2020 election as of June 30, 2019.  At this time there are ten clear borderline states.  At a later time, this website will update the projections as additional data is available and political sentiments change.  There are exactly ten states that qualify as borderline states at this time.  They are as follows:

1) ARIZONA – Arizona is a battleground state.  In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton and won the eleven electoral votes from Arizona.  In 2020, Arizona has an important U.S. Senate race.  Arizona is deep purple presently.

2) NEVADA – Nevada was won by Clinton in 2016 in a close race so Clinton earned all of the six electoral votes from Nevada.  Nevada is deep purple for 2020.

3) COLORADO – Colorado is a battleground state that was won by Clinton in 2016 in a close race.  Colorado has a large percentage of voters registered as NPA.  NPA stands for No Party Affiliation.  NPA voters are often defined as independent voters and they are not affiliated with either major party.  Colorado’s nine electoral votes are too important for either party to ignore.  Also, Colorado is geographically located in the region that is part of the Arizona-Nevada-Colorado complex.  Presidential candidates that campaign Colorado are located in an area where it would be also wise to visit Arizona and Nevada.  Colorado is deep purple for the 2020 presidential election at this time.

4) VIRGINIA – Virginia is now viewed as a purple or battleground state for the 2020 presidential election.  Clinton won Virginia in 2016, but political analysts point out that Trump might have won Virginia in 2016 if Trump had invested more time and money in Virginia.  Also, if Trump had invested more time and money in Virginia, he may have lost other states and lost the 2016 election.  Virginia, with thirteen electoral votes is deep purple at this time.  While the Democratic party holds much of the local and countywide offices, the Democratic party has lost popularity in the state recently.

5) PENNSYLVANIA – Pennsylvania is viewed as deep purple by just about every valid political analyst.  Pennsylvania was won by Trump in 2016 in a very close election.  Pennsylvania, with their 20 electoral votes is too important for either party to ignore.

6) NEW HAMPSHIRE – New Hampshire was won by Clinton in 2016.  With only four electoral votes, some may think that NH can be overlooked.  It can not and it remains deep purple at this time.

7) MAINE – Maine was won by Clinton in 2016 in a close election.  In 2020, Maine has an important Senate election that might help the republican candidate win the state.  Maine has only four electoral votes, but neither party can ignore this deep purple state.

8) MICHIGAN – Michigan was won by Donald Trump in 2016.  It was an amazing victory for Trump that few expected.  Yet, the republican nominee has no guarantee that he can win again in 2020.  Michigan has a U.S. Senate race that might help the Democratic candidate in 2020.  Michigan has 16 electoral votes that are deep purple at the present time.  With fourteen congressional districts, it is important for both parties to have popular congressional candidates supporting their respective tickets.

9) WISCONSIN – Wisconsin was a stunning victory for Trump in 2016.  Many analysts believe that Clinton could have won this state if she had invested more of her time campaigning in Wisconsin.  Wisconsin with ten electoral votes has some strong liberals on the Democratic side and strong conservatives on the republican side.  With a small number of independents, it may be the independents that decide who wins this deep purple state in 2020.

10) MINNESOTA – Minnesota was won by Clinton in 2016 in a close race.  The state has 10 electoral votes and is presently deep purple at this time.  A number of political analysts believe that Obama purposely located a large number of immigrants in Minnesota. Many of the immigrants were awaiting court decisions and governmental decisions relating to their status.  Citizens from Minnesota are strongly independent having elected Jesse Ventura as governor in past years.  Reading today’s headlines, you might believe that the 2020 presidential campaign has already begun in Minnesota.  With eight congressional districts it is important for both parties to have popular  congressional candidates seeking election on November 3, 2020.

R. Van Conoley

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